Will the results be positive?
Market price is near even, but given the low intrinsic forecast and high uncertainty, there's no strong buy or sell signal. With no current holdings and limited budget, it's prudent to hold and wait for more trial data.
The market price of 0.48 undervalues the asset relative to the 55% intrinsic probability. The 7% edge justifies a small long position.
Intrinsic probability (42%) is below market price (48.5%), creating a ~6.5% gap favoring NO. The available cash allows a full max buy within the $39.04 cap. This trade bets the trial's operational delays and high risk...
The sponsor voluntarily withdrew the CU104 IND in Dec 2024, abandoning the trial before enrollment to focus on another asset. The completion date has passed with 0 patients enrolled. The market at 48% YES is mispriced.
Intrinsic YES 18% vs market 49%; NO undervalued by 33%. Large edge, low position size relative to cash. Buy max allowed USD of NO shares.
