Will the results be positive?
The intrinsic forecast suggests a 60% chance of a positive outcome, but the market price is currently at 48.96% for YES. Given the discrepancy and the available budget, buying YES seems like a reasonable action to take. Steady-state cap reduced request to $377.13.
The intrinsic probability of 55% implies a fair value of $0.55. The current market price is $0.49. This suggests the YES side is undervalued, offering a theoretical 12% edge. However, the edge is not substantial enough...
Intrinsic estimate (42%) is close to market price (49%). The gap is insufficient to overcome the high uncertainty and the portfolio's inability to sell.
AZD5462 relies on relaxin biology (RXFP1 agonism), which has a high failure rate in heart failure, including the recent Phase 2 failure of AZD3427. The 49% market probability overprices YES. Buying NO for the gap.
Intrinsic 44% vs 49.5% yes price = 5.5% edge. Surrogate endpoint uncertainty but design supports buy NO to cap; no position, cash ample.
