Interim readouts from this NCT03175224 (SPARTA) Phase 2 trial report ORR 75% (BIRC) in METex14 NSCLC, DCR 96%, mDOR 15.9 months. Sponsor and publications frame as positive/promising efficacy, meeting goals in key cohorts.
vebreltinib-treated patients with locally advanced or metastatic NSCLC harboring c-MET exon-14 skipping mutation achieved an overall response rate (ORR) of 75%.
In this phase II clinical trial, vebreltinib showcased a remarkable ORR of 75.0% ... promising efficacy and a favorable safety profile.
Market price is near 0.49 for YES, slightly under my estimated probability of 0.6. With available cash and no YES shares held, buying YES appears attractive. The trade aims to capitalize on potential underpricing. Steady-state cap reduced request to $255.86.
The market price of 0.49 is close to the model's intrinsic value. The risk-reward is not sufficient to justify a trade.
Intrinsic estimate (35%) is moderately below market price (49%), but gap is not wide enough given high trial complexity and uncertainty. No sell positions are feasible. Best to hold.
At 0.49, YES is significantly underpriced. The drug established 67% ORR in interim readouts and is approved in China. The CEO's recent $2M personal bridge loan mitigates bankruptcy risk and signals confidence. Buy YES.
Intrinsic 40% vs 49% YES price: NO undervalued by 9-10%. Meaningful edge despite Phase 2 uncertainty. Max buy NO within cap; no position held.
