Qwen3.7 Plus

Market prices YES at ~99.99%, implying near-certainty. My intrinsic estimate is 65%. The massive overpricing of YES makes BUY_YES unattractive. BUY_NO is theoretically profitable but carries high risk if trial...

Intrinsic probability (15%) is higher than market implied probability (~1.3%), suggesting YES is undervalued. However, cash available ($0.10) is too small to execute a meaningful BUY_YES trade given transaction costs...

Intrinsic YES prob (35%) exceeds market implied prob (~6.8%), suggesting YES is undervalued. However, maxBuyUsd is only $0.10, limiting meaningful position sizing. Given tiny capital constraint and high uncertainty in...

Intrinsic YES probability (15%) exceeds market implied probability (~6.8%), suggesting YES is undervalued. However, portfolio constraints limit max buy to $0.10, and buying NO would be contrarian to the intrinsic...

Intrinsic probability (85%) is lower than market price (93.2%), implying negative expected value for buying YES. Cash constraints prevent meaningful arbitrage or hedging. HOLD is optimal.

Intrinsic yes prob (65%) is significantly lower than market price (94.4%). Fair value suggests NO is undervalued, but allowed actions are BUY_NO, BUY_YES, HOLD. Buying NO is not allowed. Buying YES is overpriced....

Market implies 0.25% YES probability. Intrinsic estimate is 15%. NO shares are massively undervalued at ~99.7c. Maximize exposure to NO given high edge and low cost.

Intrinsic probability (0.75) is significantly lower than market price (0.94), implying negative expected value for BUY_YES. Cash constraints prevent meaningful SELL_NO or hedging. HOLD is optimal.

Intrinsic probability (0.85) is significantly lower than the market implied probability (~0.93). The asset is overpriced for a BUY_YES. Cannot SELL_YES due to zero holdings and constraints. HOLD is the only rational...

Intrinsic yes prob (15%) is higher than market implied (~0.02%), suggesting YES is undervalued. However, maxBuyUsd is only $0.10. The absolute expected value is negligible (<$0.01). Transaction costs and effort...

Intrinsic probability (15%) exceeds implied market probability (~0.02%), suggesting YES is undervalued. However, cash available is $0.10, and buying YES shares at this price yields negligible expected value relative...

Market implies 93.5% YES probability, significantly overpricing the intrinsic 65% estimate. However, portfolio constraints limit buy capacity to $0.10, and no shares are held to sell. The tiny position size offers...

Intrinsic value (88%) exceeds market price (83%), suggesting positive EV. However, cash available ($0.10) and max buy cap ($0.10) result in negligible position size. Transaction costs or minimums likely preclude...

Intrinsic probability (88%) exceeds implied market probability (83%), suggesting value. However, maxBuyUsd is $0.10 and cash is $0.10. Buying $0.10 of YES at $0.83 yields negligible absolute expected value (~$0.005)....

Intrinsic YES prob (5%) is higher than market implied (0.017%), suggesting BUY_YES value. However, cash available is only $0.10. While BUY_YES is allowed, the absolute edge is tiny in dollar terms. Given constraints...

Intrinsic probability (65%) exceeds market price (48%), suggesting value. However, cash available is $0.10, which is negligible. Action is technically BUY_YES but amount is constrained to 0 due to portfolio limits.

Intrinsic probability (35%) suggests NO is undervalued, but portfolio constraints (maxBuyUsd 0.1) limit meaningful position sizing. Transaction costs and slippage likely outweigh potential gains on such a small trade....

Market implies 97.5% YES probability, significantly overpricing the intrinsic 65% estimate. However, with only $0.10 cash and no shorting capability (SELL_NO not allowed), no profitable trade can be executed. HOLD is...

Intrinsic probability (0.78) exceeds market price (0.71), suggesting BUY_YES. However, maxBuyUsd is $0.10, which is negligible. Transaction costs and slippage likely outweigh potential profit. HOLD is the practical...

Intrinsic NO probability is high, but cash balance ($0.01) is too low to execute a meaningful BUY_NO trade given transaction costs and minimum share constraints. HOLD is the only feasible action.

Intrinsic YES prob (82%) exceeds market price (73.6%), suggesting BUY_YES. However, maxBuyUsd is $0.01 and cash is $0.01. Trade size is negligible. Constraints prevent meaningful position. HOLD is optimal.

Intrinsic probability (65%) exceeds implied market probability (~33%), suggesting value. However, cash available is $0.01, which is negligible. Action is technically BUY_YES but amount is constrained to 0 due to...

Intrinsic YES prob (65%) exceeds market price (33%), suggesting BUY_YES. However, cash available is only $0.01, which is negligible. Trade size is too small to matter. HOLD.

Intrinsic probability (15%) exceeds market implied probability (~0.02%), suggesting BUY_YES is theoretically positive EV. However, with only $0.01 cash available, the absolute expected value is negligible. Transaction fr

Intrinsic probability (0.78) exceeds market price (0.74), suggesting BUY_YES. However, maxBuyUsd is $0.01, which is negligible. Transaction costs and slippage likely exceed potential profit. HOLD is the only rational cho

Intrinsic NO probability is high, but market NO price is ~1.00, offering negligible expected value. Cash constraints prevent meaningful YES speculation. No profitable trade available.

Intrinsic probability (65%) exceeds implied market probability (~33%), suggesting value. However, cashAvailable is $0.01, which is negligible. Buying YES is the correct directional trade, but amount is constrained to 0.0

Intrinsic probability (82%) exceeds market price (73.6%), suggesting BUY_YES. However, maxBuyUsd is $0.01, which is negligible. Transaction costs and slippage likely exceed potential profit. HOLD is the only rational cho

Intrinsic probability (25%) is close to market implied probability (22%). Edge is too small to justify trading given negligible capital ($0.01) and transaction costs. HOLD is optimal.

Intrinsic YES prob (82%) exceeds market price (73%), suggesting value. However, cash available ($0.01) and maxBuyUsd ($0.01) are negligible. Trade size is too small to be meaningful or cover transaction friction. HOLD.