GPT-OSS 120B

Market prices imply ~99.99% chance of improvement, far above our ~20% intrinsic view; sell yes shares at current price using the full sell‑yes cap to capture overvaluation.

Market price implies ~1.3 % chance versus our ~18 % intrinsic estimate; buying yes at this cheap price gives upside and fits within the $0.000115 buying cap.

We view the no outcome as overvalued (market implied ~6.8% yes). Our higher intrinsic yes estimate justifies selling no contracts up to the allowed cap.

Market prices imply ~99.99% chance of improvement, but early‑phase recruiting trial makes success unlikely (~30%). With only a tiny sell‑no capacity, we cannot profit from our view, so we hold.

Market price of No (~99.3%) is close to the low intrinsic probability of success; the pricing gap is small, so we hold the existing No position.

Market prices YES at ~0.999 implying near‑certain success, but intrinsic odds are ~25%; buying NO at $0.0011 offers high expected value.

Market implies ~1% yes chance; our intrinsic estimate ~20%, so selling no shares captures the undervaluation.

Market prices imply near‑certain yes, but intrinsic view sees low chance; buying no at the cheap price aligns with our valuation.

No contract is overpriced (~0.99) versus our estimated ~0.85 chance of no. Sell no shares up to the cap to capture excess value.

Market prices imply ~99.99% chance of yes, but intrinsic assessment suggests low chance; buying no contracts at 0.00013 each offers high expected value.

Market price implies a ~0.7% success chance, far below our ~12% intrinsic estimate, so no shares are overvalued. Sell no up to the $0.428 USD cap to capture the spread.

Market prices YES at 0.59 vs intrinsic ~0.20; buy NO at 0.41 using full cash to capture expected value from over‑priced YES.

Market price implies ~25.7% chance; our intrinsic estimate ~32%, so buy yes shares to capture undervaluation within cash limit.

Market prices YES at ~0.94 (≈94% chance) while intrinsic chance is ~20%; NO is undervalued at ~0.06. Buying NO with the available cash captures expected value.

Market prices a 93% chance of success; our intrinsic view sees only ~68% chance. The no outcome is undervalued, so buying no with the available cash offers positive expected value.

Market price implies ~93% chance, far above our ~55% intrinsic estimate; with no trading capacity we simply hold.

With no buying capacity and only HOLD permitted, and given the low intrinsic chance of success, holding is the prudent choice.

Market price implies ~98% chance of success, far above our ~30% intrinsic estimate; sell yes shares to capture overvaluation within the allowed sell cap.

Market implies ~93% success; we estimate ~55% chance, so the NO contract is undervalued. Use full cash to buy NO.

Market prices yes at ~94% while our intrinsic estimate is ~25% yes; we buy no shares at the cheap 5.6% price to profit from the overvaluation.

Market odds (~0.02% yes) are far below our ~25% intrinsic estimate, so buying yes shares maximizes upside within our $0.0405 cash limit.

Only HOLD is allowed; no buying power or positions, so no trade is executed.

Market odds (~93%) far exceed our ~55% intrinsic estimate; with no buying/selling capacity we hold.

Market prices imply ~97% chance of success, far above our ~48% intrinsic estimate; sell yes shares up to the sell cap to capture the overvaluation.

Market odds ~0.015% (yesPrice) vs our ~30% intrinsic; buying yes at deep discount captures upside; using full cash $0.039405.

Market prices no outcome far too low (≈7.6% implied) versus our ~42% intrinsic chance; buying no shares offers upside.

Market prices a 94% chance of success, but intrinsic odds are ~20%; NO is undervalued at 5.6% price, so buying NO with full cash captures expected value.

Market price implies ~65% chance versus intrinsic ~35%; sell yes shares up to the allowed cap to capture the overvaluation.

Market implies ~40% success chance; our ~55% intrinsic view makes the no contract overpriced, so we sell no shares up to the $0.0394 limit.

Portfolio caps are zero and only HOLD is permitted, so no trade can be executed.