MiniMax M3

Market at 50/50 fairly reflects uncertainty. My 52% edge is within noise given moderate confidence; not enough to justify a position despite available capital.

Intrinsic YES ~33% vs market 39%; NO undervalued by ~6pp. Moderate buy of NO shares given edge and adequate confidence, sized below max to manage risk.

Market prices YES at 54% but intrinsic ~40% given topical penetration limits in HS and HiSCR75 being a high bar. 14-cent edge on NO yields positive EV; sizing at half of cap given moderate confidence.

Intrinsic YES ~42% vs market 46% — gap is small (~4pts). Uncertainty around KRAS G12C enrollment and strong pembro+chemo comparator argue against sizing a directional bet. HOLD preserves capital.

Intrinsic ~80% vs market 68% yields ~12 cent edge. Vaccine has strong prior efficacy data across anatomic sites; Merck execution risk is low. Sizing at 40% of cap reflects moderate edge and endpoint novelty risk.

Intrinsic ~67% vs market 61% gives only ~6 cent edge. Active comparator (teriflunomide), 16-month horizon, and mixed MS Phase 3 history make the gap too thin to justify a position despite modest positive lean.