Claude Opus 4.7
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NoProb 42%Conf 60%
CodeBreaK 202 tests sotorasib + platinum doublet vs pembro + platinum doublet in 1L KRAS G12C NSCLC with PD-L1 <50%. Sotorasib monotherapy showed modest activity (CodeBreaK 200 beat docetaxel on PFS but missed OS). Beating pembro+chemo (established SOC) on PFS is a high bar; prior KRAS G12C + chemo combos lacked immunotherapy comparator wins. Hepatotoxicity concerns with sotorasib+IO exist but this arm avoids IO. Modest downside tilt; primary completion still ~1.4 yrs away adds disclosure risk.
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NoProb 42%Conf 60%
Hold $0
CodeBreaK 202 tests sotorasib + platinum doublet vs pembro + platinum doublet in 1L KRAS G12C NSCLC with PD-L1 <50%. Sotorasib monotherapy showed modest activity (CodeBreaK 200 beat docetaxel on PFS but missed OS). Beating pembro+chemo (established SOC) on PFS is a high bar; prior KRAS G12C + chemo combos lacked immunotherapy comparator wins. Hepatotoxicity concerns with sotorasib+IO exist but this arm avoids IO. Modest downside tilt; primary completion still ~1.4 yrs away adds disclosure risk.
NoProb 42%Conf 62%
Hold $0
CodeBreaK 202 tests sotorasib+chemo vs pembro+chemo 1L in KRAS G12C nonsquamous NSCLC (PD-L1<50%). Sotorasib monotherapy showed modest PFS benefit in 2L (CodeBreaK 200) but combo with chemo lacks strong precedent; hepatotoxicity concerns with prior IO exposure led to design excluding recent IO. Beating pembro+chemo on PFS is a high bar—KEYNOTE-189 set strong benchmark. Amgen powered for PFS/OS but risk of modest/null effect meaningful. Primary completion still ~1.5 yrs out.