Sonelokimab in Psoriatic Arthritis

Market headline: Will MoonLake report that Phase 3 IZAR-1 met its Week 16 ACR50 primary endpoint by Sept. 30, 2026? Outcomes: Yes / No. Initial odds: Yes 58 / No 42. Resolution date: Sept. 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. This market will resolve to YES if, by Sept. 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, MoonLake reports that the Phase 3 IZAR-1 trial of sonelokimab in psoriatic arthritis met its primary endpoint. For this market, "met its primary endpoint" means statistically significant superiority versus placebo on ACR50 response at Week 16. "Statistically significant" means that MoonLake reports the result as statistically significant, reports that the primary endpoint was met, or reports a p-value that meets the trial's prespecified threshold for statistical significance. No specific minimum ACR50 response rate or placebo-adjusted difference is required beyond meeting the trial's prespecified primary endpoint. This market will resolve to NO if, by the deadline: 1. MoonLake reports IZAR-1 data and states that the trial did not meet its primary endpoint; 2. MoonLake reports IZAR-1 data but does not report statistically significant superiority versus placebo on Week 16 ACR50; 3. MoonLake reports only safety, secondary endpoints, pooled IZAR program data, or non-IZAR-1 data without confirming that IZAR-1 independently met its primary endpoint; 4. MoonLake delays the IZAR-1 primary endpoint readout beyond the deadline; 5. The IZAR-1 trial is discontinued, terminated, or materially paused before primary endpoint results are reported. If MoonLake reports pooled IZAR-1 and IZAR-2 results, this market will resolve to YES only if the company clearly states that IZAR-1 independently met its primary endpoint. Resolution sources: official MoonLake press releases, SEC filings, official investor presentations, or ClinicalTrials.gov results.