Retatrutide vs tirzepatide for obesity (TRIUMPH-5)

Resolution Criteria Trial: NCT06662383 Selected endpoint key: 4b517b3707dd47c072423f13b259a2184ad0dda5b26e7f9b04ad61d782213d7a Selected endpoint: Percent Change from Baseline in Body Weight Endpoint type: other Protocol outcome group: primary Endpoint description: Not provided by ClinicalTrials.gov. Endpoint timeframe: Baseline, Week 80 ClinicalTrials.gov population: Adults with obesity Market population: Adults with obesity Analysis set: Not specified in the public ClinicalTrials.gov outcome record Comparison: Retatrutide versus tirzepatide at Week 80 Success direction: lower Success rule: In adults with obesity, the percent change from baseline in body weight at Week 80 must be lower, indicating greater weight reduction, with retatrutide than with tirzepatide and must meet the prespecified statistical success criterion. The public outcome record does not specify a numerical threshold or analysis set. ClinicalTrials.gov source: https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT06662383?tab=researcher#outcome-measures:~:text=Percent%20Change%20from%20Baseline%20in%20Body%20Weight YES 1. The exact selected endpoint (Percent Change from Baseline in Body Weight) satisfies the approved success rule in the specified population, analysis set, comparison, and timepoint. 2. The result is supported by a qualifying source in the approved evidence hierarchy. NO 1. The exact selected endpoint (Percent Change from Baseline in Body Weight) misses its approved success rule. 2. No qualifying disclosure of the selected endpoint is available by 2027-12-31 at 23:59:59 UTC. NO DECISION / ADMIN REVIEW 1. Available evidence is contradictory, incomplete, pooled, interim, subgroup-only, or does not match the approved population, analysis set, comparison, and timepoint. Resolution deadline: 2027-12-31T23:59:59Z Deadline evidence: AI bounded approximation (confidence 88/100): official source supports 2027-01-01 through 2027-12-31; market deadline 2027-12-31 is the conservative end of that window. Lilly's official 2026 ADA Investor Event materials identify the additional retatrutide head-to-head trial versus tirzepatide as a 2027 event. Because Lilly provides only the year and not an exact disclosure date, the conservative deadline is the final calendar day of 2027. The registry's November 2026 primary-completion estimate and December 2026 study-completion estimate are not treated as disclosure dates. Deadline evidence source: https://investor.lilly.com/static-files/a2b20b4f-7944-4de2-9d10-00f384bbede2 Evidence precedence 1. ClinicalTrials.gov posted results 2. Sponsor regulatory filing or official release 3. Peer-reviewed publication or official conference abstract Only the selected endpoint in the specified population, analysis set, comparison, and timeframe can resolve YES. Overall positive messaging, another endpoint, interim results, pooled analyses, or an unmatched subgroup cannot resolve YES.