ABS-201 in Androgenetic Alopecia

Trial
100%50%0%Jun 25Jun 26Jun 27Jun 28Jun 29Jun 30Jul 1Jul 2Jul 3Jul 4Jul 5Jul 6Jul 7Jul 8Jul 9Jul 10Jul 11Jul 12Jul 13Jul 14Jul 15Jul 16Jul 17Jun 25 • YES 31.9%Jun 29 • YES 32.9%Jun 30 • YES 32.9%Jul 1 • YES 100.0%Jul 2 • YES 48.4%Jul 3 • YES 93.5%Jul 4 • YES 93.5%Jul 5 • YES 93.5%Jul 6 • YES 94.4%Jul 7 • YES 2.7%Jul 8 • YES 99.8%Jul 9 • YES 6.8%Jul 10 • YES 100.0%Jul 17 • YES 99.9%
Stock ($ABSI)Daily close · through Jul 17
No stock close$11.99$9.85$7.71Jun 25Jun 26Jun 27Jun 28Jun 29Jun 30Jul 1Jul 2Jul 3Jul 4Jul 5Jul 6Jul 7Jul 8Jul 9Jul 10Jul 11Jul 12Jul 13Jul 14Jul 15Jul 16Jul 17Jul 9 • ABSI $11.47Jul 10 • ABSI $10.60Jul 13 • ABSI $10.21Jul 14 • ABSI $10.23Jul 15 • ABSI $9.76Jul 16 • ABSI $8.23Jul 17 • ABSI $8.30

Will Absci report a numerical improvement in Target Area Hair Count (TAHC) for ABS-201 in AGA patients by Dec. 31, 2026?

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Resolution Criteria
This market will resolve to YES if, by Dec. 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, Absci reports interim headline data in androgenetic alopecia patients showing at least one of the following for ABS-201: 1. A numerical Target Area Hair Count (TAHC) change from baseline greater than 0 in at least one ABS-201 dose group; 2. A placebo-adjusted TAHC difference greater than 0 in at least one ABS-201 dose group; 3. A quantified dose-response pattern in TAHC favoring ABS-201, supported by reported numerical TAHC values, changes, percentages, or placebo-adjusted differences across at least two ABS-201 dose groups. Statistical significance is not required. This market will resolve to NO if, by the deadline: 1. No interim headline clinical data is reported; 2. Interim data is reported, but no numerical TAHC data is disclosed; 3. TAHC is reported as flat or worse for all ABS-201 dose groups; 4. Only safety, tolerability, PK, PD, or immunogenicity data is reported, with no numerical hair-count efficacy data; 5. ABS-201 is paused, discontinued, or terminated before numerical TAHC data is reported. Vague statements such as "encouraging signal," "trend toward improvement," "biological activity," or "dose-response observed" are not sufficient for YES unless supported by numerical TAHC data. Resolution sources: official Absci press releases, SEC filings, official investor presentations, or ClinicalTrials.gov results.